Research Corner

Tracking market movements and macro signals that impact our members, and the performance of businesses and consumers that our market supports.

Our Market Funds
$12.7 Trillion…

Total Securitizations Outstanding in Trillions (Year-End 2023)

4.17.24 Updated Total Securitization Chart

Securitization Issuance 2022 vs 2023, $Billions

v3 Securitization Issuance Graph

Publications

March 18, 2024

To date, Non-Agency RMBS supply stands at $18 billion, with non-QM-backed deals and jumbo mortgages leading issuance. Key drivers of issuance include non-QM-backed deals, jumbo mortgages, credit risk transfer securities, and “other”. In the "other" category, RMBS backed by HELOCs and CES loans emerge as leaders, boasting $1.4 billion in issuance. Today's HELOC loans reflect stricter criteria post-2008, leading to lower delinquency rates. Concerns about the "using-the-home-as-an-ATM" mindset have diminished with higher interest rates. With growing demand for equity release products, market participants anticipate HELOC/CES-backed RMBS issuance in 2024 to match or exceed the $5 billion recorded in 2023.

February 8, 2024

In January, the private structured finance market surged with issuance of non-agency RMBS, CMBS, ABS, and CLO reaching $62 billion, making it the second most active January in the last decade. Despite the Fed’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts, growing optimism for a soft landing and potential rate cuts in 2024 have spurred market activity, leading to increased issuance and tighter credit risk spreads.

December 14, 2023

This edition of Research Corner introduces the beta release of the SFA KnowledgeHub, a flexible data platform created to acquaint non-members with pertinent information and provide members with swift access to vital industry data sources. The Hub, currently organized into three key areas—How Securitization Helps Your State, Explore Data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA), and Market Trends We Track—offers interactive, customizable reports that can be emailed or downloaded in CSV format.

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News

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April 8, 2024

Private structured credit, known as Private Asset-Based Finance (Private ABF), is rapidly gaining traction as issuers seek diverse capital sources and banks adjust their lending practices. Launching a Private ABF strategy alongside an existing Traded Asset-Backed Securities (Traded ABS) team offers a pragmatic approach to adapt to this evolving landscape. By broadening the pool of capital providers, this strategy benefits issuers by expanding their funding options, investors by providing more diverse investment opportunities, and banks and service providers by increasing their market reach. Having a team well-versed in both strategies enables investors to navigate market changes effectively and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

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March 1, 2024

This week we are excited to introduce our Research Feature, part of a suite of research products that explore emerging trends in the broader economy and their potential impact on securitization. Our inaugural feature, titled "Surging Auto Insurance Premiums Impact Credit and Affordability," delves into the rise in auto insurance premiums and the strain they place on household finances. For securitization participants, this trend demands attention as the upward trajectory of auto insurance premiums presents a significant challenge to the already declining credit performance of $1.5 trillion in auto loans. Authored by William Black of Black Analytics LLC, this feature draws on his extensive expertise gained during his tenure at a leading rating agency, where he led the Consumer Structured Finance New Issue Ratings team for the Americas for over two decades. Mr. Black authors a newsletter, Consumer Credit Matters, which can be found here.

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November 30, 2023

In a recent analysis of 28 private credit loans and 15 broadly syndicated loans, Moody’s identified a noticeable correlation between the expanding size of private credit loans and the diminishing presence of financial maintenance covenants. Unlike the covenant-lite structures commonly associated with syndicated loans made to large companies, private credit loans made to middle-market companies have historically been characterized by robust covenant packages and maintenance requirements. In 2023, CLOs backed by private credit loans have contributed $22 billion to the $99 billion CLO new issue market. This marks an 85% increase compared to the previous year and stands in stark contrast to CLOs backed by broadly syndicated loans, which experienced a 31% decline during the same period.

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Contact

Elen Callahan

Elen Callahan

Head of Research & Education

Jessica Steele

Jessica Steele

Associate, Research

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