COVID-19: Supporting Consumers & Businesses

The COVID-19 pandemic will have far reaching impacts on the global economy – supporting consumers and businesses during these times is our priority.

SFA and our member companies are working diligently to ensure the functioning of our country’s capital markets, and the protection of the consumers and communities our members serve.

Publications

July 29, 2020

On July 29, SFA joined six trade groups including ACLI, AFSA, Equipment Leasing and Finance Association, Marketplace Lenders Association, Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors in signing a letter that was sent to House and Senate Leadership.

July 22, 2020

SFA’s CEO, Michael Bright, sits down with the President of the National Community Stabilization Trust, Julia Gordon, to discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the housing market, what communities are being impacted the most, and what policymakers can do to help.

July 6, 2020

The official unemployment rate declined to 11.1% in June from 13.3% in May while total unemployment rate dropped to 18% from 21.2%. Permanent job losses increased 7% on the month. The degree of misclassifications has “declined considerably” and would have contributed only 1% to the total rate. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27 shows another 1.4 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. This metric has remained stubbornly high, averaging 1.5 million over the past 4 weeks.

June 12, 2020

SFA has published the SFA TALF Customer Agreement template for investors and dealers to use as a guide to their discussion as they enter into arrangements to facilitate purchases of TALF eligible ABS.

June 12, 2020

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., over 44 million Americans have filed for unemployment. To help consumers bridge this temporary period of financial hardship, lenders, with the support of federal and state regulators, have provided borrowers with a myriad of payment relief plans.

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Learn More

SFA’s Research Corner is where we track the performance on the consumer and business lending that our market finances and the economic impact of the structured finance industry, including market movements and macro signals that impact our members.

Research CornerAugust 3, 2020 
Research CornerJuly 28, 2020
Research CornerJuly 20, 2020
Research CornerJuly 13, 2020
Research CornerJune 30, 2020
Research CornerJune 22, 2020
Research CornerJune 15, 2020
Research CornerJune 8, 2020
Research CornerJune 1, 2020
Research CornerMay 18, 2020 
Research CornerMay 8, 2020
Research CornerMay 1, 2020
Research CornerApril 23, 2020
Research CornerApril 16, 2020

The outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in supply and demand shocks never before known to the world economy. Social distancing and shelter in place directives arising from the COVID-19 outbreak have begun to weigh heavily on consumer demand as businesses, both large and small, close for extended periods of time. As the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. continues to rise, the full impact of this outbreak on the U.S. economy remains uncertain. Businesses and consumers will face increasing pressures during these challenging times. We encourage you to explore our members’ extensive coverage of COVID-19 and its impact on the securitization markets. Links may be found below.

 

Consumer ABS:

General

Coronavirus-related borrower relief, credit profiles and deal structures will differentiate tranche risks -Moody’s

Fitch Publishes Consumer ABS Rating Criteria Exposure Draft – Fitch Ratings

Small Business ABS Credit Quality Hinges On Pandemic Duration And Stimulus Efficacy – S&P Global

10 U.S. Small Business ABS Deals on Watch Downgrade Due to COVID-19 – KBRA

U.S. Structured Finance Trend Watch: Navigating Troubled Waters – KBRA

Coronavirus: Impact of Federal Stimulus on Securitizations Backed by Consumer ReceivablesKBRA

Coronavirus (COVID-19): Impact of Federal Stimulus on Securitizations Backed by Consumer Receivables KBRA

Coronavirus Payment Holidays Could Delay Subordinated SF Interest – Fitch

Coronavirus Containment Actions Pose Material Risk to Global SF -Fitch

Coronavirus (COVID-19): Consumer ABS Braces for DisruptionsKBRA

Heat Map: Bonds Most Vulnerable to Coronavirus are in CLO, CMBS, Floorplan ABS and Rental Car ABS SectorsMoody’s

Global Structured Finance Rating Methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – DBRS

Coronavirus Could be Fatal for Retailers Facing Downgrades, Bankruptcy – S&P

 

Auto ABS

COVID-19-tied loan extensions will weaken deal cash flows – Moody’s

Auto ABS – US: Sector Update – Q1 2020: Loan extensions rise as pandemic takes hold – Moody’s

Coronavirus (COVID-19): Modifying Auto and Consumer Loan Delinquency Expectations – KBRA

US Car Rental Bankruptcies May Further Pressure Used Car Prices – Fitch

WEBINAR: COVID-19 AND THE U.S. AUTO LOAN ABS SECTOR – KBRA

Thirty-Three U.S. Subprime Auto ABS Ratings From 26 Transactions Placed On CreditWatch Negative  – S&P Global

U.S. Auto Loan Tracker: Both Prime and Subprime Markets Show Effects Of COVID-19 For March 2020 – S&P Global

Auto Loan ABS Sector Outlook – Negative Amid Coronavirus – DBRS

Surge in loan extensions will slow note payments, signals rising borrower distress – Moody’s

60 U.S. Auto Loan and Auto Lease ABS Securities on Watch Due to COVID-19 Concerns KBRA

Structured Finance Ratings: Fitch’s Coronavirus Response So Far (As of April 17) – Fitch

Ford Motor Co. And Subsidiary Ratings Lowered To ‘BB+’ And Placed On CW Negative Due To Weaker Metrics, Pandemic Risk – S&P

Coronavirus Pain for US Automakers Likely to Worsen in Near Future – S&P

 

Credit Card ABS

U.S. And Canadian Credit Card ABS Performance Risk Increases As Unemployment Supplements Wane S&P

COVID-19 fallout will further weaken yields and payment rates from sharp April erosion – Moody’s

Credit Card ABS – US: Sector Update – Q1 2020: Credit card ABS performance remained relatively strong – Moody’s

15 U.S. Credit Card ABS Securities on Watch Due to COVID-19 Concerns – KBRA

Coronavirus Fallout to Adversely Affect U.S. Credit Card ABS – Fitch Ratings

Coronavirus Impact More Pronounced for Retail Credit Card ABS – Fitch

 

Equipment ABS

Coronavirus shock heightens credit risk for transportation, some small ticket ABS – Moody’s

US Equipment ABS Asset Performance Negative on Coronavirus – Fitch

 

Personal Loan ABS:

Coronavirus poses record shock to obligors, risk is heightened for unsecured loan ABS – Moody’s

DBRS Morningstar’s Marketplace Lending Unsecured Consumer Loan ABS Sector Outlook—Negative Amid Coronavirus – DBRS

169 U.S. Unsecured Consumer ABS Securities on Watch Due to COVID-19 Concerns – KBRA

 

Rental Car ABS

Hertz Settlement/Plan Laid Out; Coronavirus Risks High for Rental Car ABS – Fitch Ratings

Rental Car ABS Outlook Revised to Negative On Coronavirus Impact– Fitch

Rental Car ABS Performance Expected to Remain Stable in the Near Term Despite Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) ConcernsDBRS

 

Student Loan ABS

COVID-19-tied forbearance delays cash flow, heightens risk for short-dated bonds (FFELP) – Moody’s

Student Loan ABS – US: Sector Update – Q1 2020: Coronavirus outbreak drives increase in forbearance levels – Moody’s

U.S. Private Student Loan ABS Sector Outlook — Negative Due to Coronavirus – DBRS Morningstar

DBRS Morningstar Student Loan ABS Update — Q1 2020 Performance – DBRS

Effects Of COVID-19 On U.S. Student Loan ABS – S&P

U.S. Private Student Loan ABS Outlook Negative on Coronavirus Pressure – Fitch

 

Commercial ABS:

General

Strains on small and midsize businesses are credit negative for issuers across sectors -Moody’s

Aircraft ABS

Aircraft Lease ABS and Secured Aircraft Debt Sector Outlook—Negative Due to the Coronavirus – DBRS Morningstar

Coronavirus (COVID-19): Aviation ABS Exposure to Avianca’s Bankruptcy Filing – KBRA

As Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Weighs on Airlines, Lease Payment Deferrals Are Likely to Rise– DBRS

77 Ratings On 32 Aircraft And Aircraft Engine ABS Deals Placed on Watch Negative Over Reduced Travel Due to Coronavirus – S&P

 

Whole Business Securitizations

US Whole Business Securitizations Under Stress from COVID-19 – S&P

Coronavirus (COVID-19): Implications for Whole Business Securitizations – KBRA

U.S. WB ABS: Nine Ratings on CreditWatch Negative Due to COVID-19 Stress – S&P (subscription required)

 

Small Business ABS

Coronavirus (COVID-19): Impact on Small Business ABS – KBRA

 

CMBS:

Coronavirus and Volatile Oil Prices Elevate Risk on Houston CMBS DBRS Morningstar

Coronavirus (COVID-19): A Closer Look at State Multifamily Rent Legislation -KBRA 

CMBS Conduit Exposure to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Implications-DBRS Morningstar

SF Credit Brief US CMBS Delinquency Rate Experiences Another Steep Rise However a Decline in Grace Status May Flatten the Future Delinquency Curve– S&P

Coronavirus (COVID-19): Stresses Weigh on CBL Properties–CMBS Exposure Update – KBRA

Expand or Contract? Ramifications of Coronavirus on the Office Market – DBRS Morningstar

Coronavirus (COVID-19): CMBS Loan Performance Trend Update – KBRA

Historical Excess Loss in CMBS Suggests Small Markets, Skilled Nursing/Healthcare Properties, and Regional Malls Are Most at Risk – DBRS

The Next Falling Domino: Student Housing – DBRS

DBRS Morningstar Interactions with CMBS Servicers During COVID-19 Pandemic – DBRS

Extended Closures Come With Significant Challenges for Retail Loans in CMBSDBRS Morningstar

US CMBS conduit/fusion loan delinquencies up in March; coronavirus fallout to fuel further rise – Moody’s

U.S. Lodging-Backed CMBS Bracing For The Impact Of COVID-19S&P

Few Near-Term U.S. CMBS Maturities but Extensions Expected Due to Coronavirus – Fitch

US Conduit Hotel Loans are more Vulnerable than their Single Borrower Counterparts as the Coronavirus Spreads – DBRS

Impacts of Coronavirus: What Does the CMBS Data Tell Us? – Moody’s

 

RMBS:

Structured Finance Ratings: Fitch’s Coronavirus Response So Far – Fitch Ratings

COVID-19-spurred forbearance will continue to drive up collateral delinquencies – Moody’s

Non-QM RMBS And COVID-19: Locking Down States’ Exposure – S&P

KBRA Places 277 Classes Across 53 RMBS Transactions on Watch Downgrade – KBRA

Fitch Ratings Updates U.S. RMBS Diligence to Include Heightened Coronavirus Stresses – Fitch Ratings

KBRA Places 277 Classes Across 53 RMBS Transactions on Watch Downgrade – KBRA

Coronavirus-tied aid will support mortgage performance, bond effects vary by structure – Moody’s

Coronavirus Disease Implications for Government-Sponsored Enterprise Credit Risk Transfer Deals – DBRS

Coronavirus-tied collateral delinquencies will likely rise in the next few months – Moody’s

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Fallout and the Credit Risk Exposure Mapping of U.S. RMBS Sectors – DBRS

International:

New liquidity facility reduces coronavirus related payment deferral risks for small lenders’ deals (Australia) – Moody’s

Chinese Auto ABS Shows Resilience Amid Pandemic; Headwinds Remain. – Fitch Ratings

Australian banks’ extension of coronavirus relief measures will support RMBS – Moody’s

COVID-19-Related Public Rating Actions On Nonfinancial Corporations And Affected European CLOs-S&P

Sector Update, Q1 2020 – Performance deteriorated amid coronavirus disruptions (Asia Pacific)Moody’s

Widespread but differing payment moratorium programs will lead to varying default roll rates – Moody’s

Coronavirus Pandemic Pressures Australian ABS Performance – Fitch Ratings

Impact of COVID-19 on Canadian Credit Card ABS – DBRS Morningstar

European Structured Finance COVID-19 Credit Risk Exposure Roadmap – DBRS Morningstar

COVID-19-Related Public Rating Actions On Nonfinancial Corporations And Affected European CLOs – S&P

Credit FAQ: How European ABS And RMBS Servicers Are Managing COVID-19 Disruption And Payment Holidays – S&P

Japanese Delinquent loan repurchases will moderate defaults amid coronavirus disruptions – Moody’s

Chinese Sector update, Q1 2020 – Delinquencies increased on coronavirus disruptions – Moody’s

Coronavirus Crisis to Test Latin American Securitization Structures – Fitch Rating’s

 

The outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in supply and demand shocks never before known to the world economy. CLOs with meaningful exposure to impacted sectors will be most vulnerable to the COVID-19 outbreak. SFA strives to support the real economy in times of both crisis and growth by safely enabling greater credit access to industry, consumers, and investors. We encourage you to explore our members’ extensive coverage of COVID-19 and its impact on the securitization markets. Links may be found below.

 

DBRS Morningstar

Credit Estimates and Assessing Borrower Default Probabilities in CLOs

CLO Risk Exposure to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

DBRS Morningstar Updates Oil and Natural Gas Price Assumptions for Corporate Credit Ratings in Light of Higher Oil Price Volatility Tied to the Coronavirus Outbreak

Impact of Coronavirus on Canadian Airport Authorities

 

Fitch Ratings

Oil Shock Compounds Sovereign Credit Risks from Coronavirus

Coronavirus Pressure Builds for NFP Hospitals, Health Systems

Fitch Stressing CLOs for Coronavirus Vulnerabilities

 

KBRA

WEBINAR: COVID-19 IMPACT ON CLOs AND CORPORATE CREDIT 

Coronavirus (COVID-19): U.S. BSL CLO Sector Exposure Map: May 2020

Corporates: Coronavirus (COVID-19): KBRA’s Corporate Credit Playbook

Aviation: Coronavirus (COVID-19) and its Effect on the Commercial Aviation Industry Comment

 

Mayer Brown

The Cares Act and CLOs

 

Moody’s

Credit risk rising from pandemic-related economic shocks, but CLO structures partly mitigate negative effects

CLO credit quality continues to weaken as underlying corporate credit conditions begin to stabilize 

CLOs – US: Sector Update – Q1 2020: CLO metrics weakened amid robust loan market on eve of pandemic

CLOs – Global: April 2020 Rating Surveillance Update: COVID-19 drives credit deterioration and reviews for downgrades

CLOs – EMEA: Sector Update – Q1 2020: Coronavirus shock hits macro and corporate metrics, CLOs’ performance will follow

CLOs – Global: CLO tranches riskier on coronavirus economic fallout, with rating ramifications

Coronavirus will hurt credit quality of CLOs to varying degrees, structures will soften the blow

CLOs – US: Coronavirus Shock Will Most Affect CLOs With Weak Issuers In Vulnerable Sectors

CLOs – EMEA: Small Amount Of Near-Term Maturities Will Soften Blow To CLOs From Industries Most Vulnerable To Coronavirus Fallout

Airlines Credit Quality Weakens as Coronavirus Causes Unprecedented Stress

Oil & Gas – Cross Region: Low Oil Prices Persisting For Longer Would Imply Additional Risk For Producers

Intensifying efforts to develop coronavirus treatments have positive ESG implications

 

S&P Global

COVID-19-Related Public Rating Actions On Nonfinancial Corporations And Affected European CLOs

Under Stress: Assessing CLO Manager Performance During COVID-19

CLO Spotlight: U.S. CLO Exposure To Negative Corporate Rating Actions

How COVID-19 Changed The European CLO Market In 60 Days

CLO Spotlight: U.S. CLO Exposure To Negative Corporate Rating Actions

Scenario Analysis: How Credit Distress Due To COVID-19 Could Affect U.S. CLO Ratings

European Corporate Securitizations: Assessing The Credit Effects Of COVID-19

European CLOs: Assessing The Credit Effects Of COVID-19

CLO Spotlight: Coronavirus Will Put U.S. CLO Diversity And Managers To The Test

Italian Power, Gas Demand Slump Illustrates How Coronavirus has Crippled Industry

Going into the COVID-19 crisis, our households and businesses were supported by strong wages, low unemployment rates and low interest rates. While this will provide some support to our economy, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in supply and demand shocks never before known to the world economy. As governments discuss and implement exit strategies, the full impact of this outbreak on the U.S. economy still remains uncertain. SFA strives to support the real economy in times of both crisis and growth by safely enabling greater credit access to industry, consumers, and investors. We encourage you to explore our members’ extensive coverage of COVID-19 and its impact on the securitization markets. Links may be found below.

 

COVID-19 United States Cases by County, April 2020

Source: Johns Hopkins University of Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center

DBRS Morningstar

COVID-19 Related Global Structured Finance Rating Actions

Replay Webinar: Impact and Implications of Coronavirus on European Credits

COVID-19 Impact Mitigated by Spain’s Recent Economic Momentum

 

Fitch Ratings

Coronavirus Accelerates Secular Shifts in Structured Finance

Most Structured Finance Ratings Affirmed, Negative Actions Up

Structured Finance’s Forbearance Challenges Go Beyond Liquidity

Coronavirus Crisis Is Crushing Global GDP Growth

Sector and Rating Outlook for U.S. Banks Revised to Negative

 

KBRA

Coronavirus (COVID-19): Can Credit Hold Ground While the U.S. Is ‘Spiraling Out of Control?’

Coronavirus (COVID-19): U.S. Banks Stable Despite Uncertainties

 

Moody’s

Payment moratoriums disrupt transaction cash flow while helping avoid borrower defaults

Shifts in credit from coronavirus shocks weaken global securitizations

Global Macro Outlook 2020-21 (March 25, 2020 Update) : The Coronavirus Will Cause Unprecedented Shock To The Global Economy

Global Economy Continues to Slide as Coronavirus Outbreak Worsens

Credit Outlook: 19 March 2020

Asia-Pacific Heat Map: Coronavirus Fallout Vulnerability is High in India, Low in Japan, Moderate Elsewhere

 

S&P Global

COVID-19 Is Testing The Resilience Of Global Structured Finance 

Economic Research: COVID-19 Macroeconomic Update: The Global Recession Is Here And Now

COVID-19 Credit Update: The Sudden Economic Stop Will Bring Intense Credit Pressure

Tracking the Spread and Economic Impact of the Coronavirus

Fed Facilities/Programs Summary

SFA has put together a summary table of all the facilities and programs announced by the Fed to-date in response to the COVID-19 crisis.

Read the summary table here.

TALF 2008 vs TALF 2020

SFA has put together a matrix comparing the 2008 TALF program criteria, as well as the asset and loan criteria, to that of 2020 TALF.

Read more here.

Main St. Lending Programs Borrower/Participant Criteria

SFA has put together a summary of the borrower/participant criteria for all of the Main Street Lending Programs.

Read more here.

TALF 2020 Deliverables Timeline

A quick reference guide to the required deliverables and related timing associated with TALF borrowing, issuers, sponsors and TALF Agents requirements can be found here. (Source: Mayer Brown)

Guide to the 2020 TALF Program

A guide to the most important features of the 2020 TALF program including eligibility requirements, loan terms, issuer/sponsor requirements, TALF Agent considerations, and a detailed TALF borrowing timeline may be found here. (Source: Morgan Lewis)

Federal Statutory Consumer Relief under the CARES Act

A chart summarizing key provisions of the CARES Act can be found here.  (Source: Mayer Brown)

 

 

 

News

Industry News

August 10, 2020

On Saturday, August 9, President Donald Trump signed one Executive Order and three Presidential Memorandums to provide additional resources to support American families and businesses impacted by the pandemic, as negotiations between Congress and the Trump Administration over a “Phase 4” COVID-19 relief package remain deadlocked.

Industry News

August 7, 2020

The headline unemployment rate dropped to 10.2% in July, a modest improvement from June’s rate of 11.1%. The total unemployment rate, which includes all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, dropped to 16.5% from 18% in June. Over 1.8 million jobs were added back to the economy.

Industry News

August 3, 2020

In a statement issued on Monday, August 3, the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) called for banking agencies to offer more loans and provide for additional loan modifications as the first-round of these programs comes to an end.

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Contact

Jen Earyes

Head of Policy

Elen Callahan

Managing Director, Head of Research

Leslie Sack

Leslie Sack

Managing Director, Head of Government Relations