What Economic Policy Could Look Like Under a Potential Biden Administration Webinar

On August 11, SFA President Kristi Leo moderated an interactive panel titled “What Economic Policy Could Look Like Under a Potential Biden Administration,” featuring Anne Wall, Partner at The Duberstein Group, Jaret Seiberg, Managing Director, Cowen Washington Research Group, and Michael Bright, SFA CEO. A recording of their conversation is available here, and a brief recap of the topics discussed are below.

Prospects on a “Phase 4” COVID-19 Relief Package

• Negotiations could remain at an impasse until after the RNC and DNC conventions.
• The looming September 30 appropriations deadline to fund the government could provide a legislative vehicle to deliver additional COVID-19 aid.
• The unworkability of the President’s recent Unemployment Insurance Presidential Memorandum could put pressure on vulnerable GOP Senators running for reelection to push for Phase 4 negotiations to resume.
• Takeaway: the upcoming election could force the party publicly perceived to be “at fault” for holding up additional COVID-19 relief back to the negotiating table.

Macro Impacts on Financial Markets from a Biden Presidency

• While there would likely be efforts to re-regulate issues in the consumer finance space, it could be offset by increased macro-level stability by the end of Twitter wars with the Fed over monetary policy and returning to more multilateral trade policies.
• An increased focus on using financial regulation for social justice and ensuring equitable access for communities of color.
• The COVID-19 pandemic has made it difficult to assess who is being considered for top regulatory positions since social distancing has put an end to in-person, informal interviews.
• The party who controls the Senate and Senate leadership could impact Biden’s pick for Treasury Secretary.
• Regulatory Leaders: Biden would be able to nominate a Chairman of the SEC and a Comptroller of the Currency almost immediately, but unable to nominate someone to the Fed until October of 2021.
• There is potential for a short-term negative stock market if Biden chooses to focus on repealing components of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act or implementing transaction or wealth taxes.
• Potential expansion of the use of the 13(3) facilities authorized under the CARES Act for future economic stimulus.
• Expect the CFPB to return to a policy of enforcement action and litigation.  
• Don’t expect a push for reforming the GSEs out of the gate; housing policy reforms where full GSE reform is not the central topic are more likely to be the focus.