On January 16, the World Economic Forum hosted its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland where economists warned of the likelihood of a global recession this year. In a survey of over 4,000 business leaders, 73% believe there will be a decline in global growth. The major risks cited by experts at this talk were of inflation, macroeconomic volatility, and geopolitical conflict, with long-term concerns over climate, supply chain pressures and technological disruption.

As reported by Bloomberg News, the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey found that more than 35% of respondents are using credit cards or loans to meet their spending needs.

Economists had expected the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ November report, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), to fall to 10 million job openings, but instead closed the month at 10.45 million, reflecting 1.7 jobs for every unemployed person, in a still hot labor market.

The Wall Street Journal reports that more than two-thirds of economists at 23 of the largest primary dealers forecast a recession this year.

ADP’s monthly payroll report, released November 30, tallied a 127,000 net increase in new positions in private payrolls, far less than economists had projected (190,000), although the Leisure and Hospitality sector still saw a strong increase of 224,000 jobs.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) released its Q3 report on household debt, revealing an increase in credit card balances by 15% year-over-year, the largest increase in more than 20 years.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released November 10, surprised analysts who had expected the annualized inflation rate to go to 7.9%, down from 8.2% in September. Instead, October’s CPI reported a 7.7% rate. The core index, minus the volatile fuel and food prices, decelerated to 6.3%, down from 6.6% last month with both rent and used car prices beginning to moderate.

Norinchukin Bank, a Japanese bank and an “anchor investor" in AAA-rated CLO bonds, has paused purchasing new CLOs in U.S. and Europe. The move was likely the result of “profound” volatility in the global markets.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) schedule to reduce its balance-sheet, known as quantitative tightening (QT), is ramping up through September and possibly ending in early 2025.

According to American Banker, banking executives were “largely positive” about the credit health of their mostly prime borrowers, while nonbank lenders with nonprime portfolios were less enthusiastic.