A recent Fitch Ratings report finds that most U.S. airports are reaching pre-pandemic passenger trends despite COVID-19 variants earlier this year. Since its last report, Fitch has revised its rating outlook for nearly all domestic airports from negative to stable. Increased debt issuances are also signaling a return to normality with many airports already coming to market in 2022.

On May 17, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in a Wall Street Journal interview stated he is committed to taking interest rates as high as necessary to get inflation headed in the direction of the central bank's 2% target. This comes after earlier this month, the Fed raised benchmark borrowing rates by half a percentage point, the second increase of 2022 as inflation reached around a 40-year high. Fed officials continue to stress that the rise in inflation is only temporary.

In its semi-annual report, published May 5, the Federal Reserve took a cautionary tone in describing the dramatic changes since its last report in November 2021, citing human and economic hardship due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the spread of the COVID Omicron variant and inflation that has been higher and longer than anticipated as elements of the vulnerabilities of the U.S. financial system.

The NAHB monthly index, released April 18, dropped for the third month to 2 points below March. Two of the measures’ three components showed a marked decline, particularly the outlook for traffic of prospective buyers which fell to 60 points from 66 points in March, with analysts noting that the housing market is highly interest rate sensitive.

Speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations April 17, St. Louis Federal Reserve Board President James Bullard reiterated the Federal Reserve target of 3.5% interest rates by year-end with half-point hikes, mentioning the Taylor rule and the 1994 hike of 75 basis points.

This past week, the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage surpassed 5%, reaching 5.02%, according to Mortgage News Daily. This is the first time it has crossed that threshold since 2018.

On April 5, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said that the Fed will begin shrinking its portfolio, now standing at $9 trillion, more rapidly than in the previous recovery (2017-2019). Worries of recession or stagflation—including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impacting gas and food prices and China’s recent COVID lockdowns impacting supply chains—have been countered by references to unemployment at 3.6%, non-managerial employees’ incomes rising by 6.7% from 2021, and US net oil exports buffering the economic impact of energy prices compared to the 1970s.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index, released on March 29, was up from February (105.7) at 107.2, slightly higher than economists’ expectations at 107, due to continued improvement in incomes and employment conditions. By contrast, the survey’s six-month outlook declined to 76.6, its lowest response since 2014, with respondents reporting they expect inflation to increase to 7.9% over the next 12 months.

The yield on the two-year Treasury note was higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury note for the first time since 2019 on March 29, a market condition that many have noted as having preceded past recessions. CNN Business puts the odds of a recession next year as high as 35% citing interest rate increases and a change in Federal Reserve Policy, Russian invasion of Ukraine, and spiking consumer prices

On March 22, the average interest rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage reached 4.72%, moving 26 basis points higher since last Friday. This is compared to March 2021 when rates were about 3.45%. As a result of the recent spike, economists are now lowering their home sales forecasts for this year.